None of the published ‘net zero’ strategies in the material production sector, which account for a quarter of global emissions, are sufficient to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
- The conclusion is from a report published Thursday by Eunomia Research & Consulting and Zero Waste Europe.
- The report demonstrates the need for an urgent reduction in material use as well as rapid decarbonisation.
The Context: Emissions from the material production sector—resource extraction and processing of raw materials—currently comprise approximately 25% of global emissions, and are therefore of significant importance in reducing emissions in line with this global carbon budget.
- The IPCC’s 2021 Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) estimates that there is a 67% chance of global warming staying within 1.5°C of pre-industrial levels if cumulative global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions stay below 400 GtCO 2e. Current trajectories suggest that this budget will be depleted within the next 10 years if growth rates are maintained.
- While the IPCC has also stated there is a need for global emissions to reach net zero by 2050, the concept of a ‘carbon budget’ has yet to gain as much recognition.
- The industries with the highest contribution to this sector are aluminium, concrete, steel and plastics. The production of these four materials alone is currently responsible for 78% of GHG emissions from the material production sector.
The Conclusions: The main conclusion of the research is that published plans for net zero by 2050 in the materials sector are unlikely to be enough to limit warming to 1.5°C. Likely trajectories show that the result could be as high as 2°C.
- The impact of deploying abatement technologies after 2030 is substantially less effective than more near-term, widespread, commercial deployment.
- Taking a Business as Usual (BAU) approach to materials production will lead to exceeding the budget by almost five times and result in a trajectory towards warming of 2.5°C.
- For the plastics industry alone, this could be as high as 3.5°C.
- Current industry net zero roadmaps bring the difference to double the budget and a warming of around 1.7°C—although with technological risk factored in, this could be as high as 2°C.
- The plastics industry currently does not have a roadmap to net zero, but projections for this study suggest that a trajectory of 2.2°C is possible even with aggressive decarbonisation.
- If the other ~75% of the global GHG emissions from non-material sectors (primarily from energy use in transport and buildings) can remain within budget, the materials sector alone would be responsible for reaching 1.6°C under the expected deployment scenario.
The Recommendations: There is a requirement for policy mechanisms to promote the implementation of sector-specific measures to accelerate reductions in GHG emissions. There is an imperative need to recognise:
- net zero targets should be replaced with 1.5°C –aligned carbon budgets—the setting of these in an equitable way will be a key part of the challenge here;
- it is important to encourage rapid, near-term investment by industry to adjust their current projected timelines. This means that alongside the drive for increasing circularity, reducing primary GHG emissions should be a priority as well;
- there will be a need to drive increased investment in research, development and deployment of electrified processes, green hydrogen, and CCUS (carbon capture, utilisation and storage); and,
- faster action will be required. By 2040, most if not all interventions must have reached maturity and market saturation across all material sectors. This will likely mean that any significant policies that will drive these changes should be in place by 2030 at the latest.
