The circular economy – the idea of “reduce, reuse and recycle” – has long been promoted as one solution to the environmental crisis. Instead of the old “take, make, use, throw away” model, it aims to keep materials in play for as long as possible.
In fashion, this means going well beyond traditional repair habits and shopping secondhand. It entails innovations such as clothing rental platforms, fibre-to-fibre recycling, and AI tools that cut waste in supply chains and sort textiles for recycling.
This sounds like a win-win: less waste, fewer raw materials used, and a lighter footprint on the planet. But in fact, these innovations could end up making things worse.
In our recent study, we found that innovations in the circular economy – especially in the textiles and clothing industry – can trigger what’s called a “backfire rebound effect”. This is where the production and consumption of clothing rises, potentially wiping out any environmental gains. It happens when efficiency improvements lower costs and make products seem more sustainable, tempting consumers to buy more.
The rebound effect is an index measuring how innovation affects production – ranging from below zero (“super conservation”: the best outcome for the environment) to above one (“backfire”: the worst), with a range of outcomes in between.
It’s not a new concept. In 1865, British economist William Stanley Jevons observed that improvements in coal efficiency actually led to more coal being burned. Today, the same dynamics can occur in fashion.
Recycled clothing, marketed as eco-friendly, may tempt people to buy more. And if fashion brands then scale up – at home or abroad – the negative environmental impact is amplified, wiping out many of the gains from recycling.
Until now, no studies had quantified the rebound effect for the global textile industry. Clothing and textiles are widely held to be the world’s second-most polluting sector after energy, consuming around 20% of the world’s water every year, emitting 1.7 billion tonnes of CO₂ annually (about 10% of global emissions), and generating 92 million tonnes of waste each year. Less than 1% of this waste is recycled into new garments.
With annual global production of new textiles projected to climb to 160 million tonnes by 2030 (from 124 million tonnes in 2023), the speed of this growth means there is a clear need for more recycling and reuse. Yet our research suggests that environmental innovations could actually lead to increased levels of global textile consumption.
Specifically, we found a global average backfire effect of 1.6 – a strikingly high figure. This means that for every 1% gain in environmental textile innovation, there will be an increase in new textile production of 0.6%.
We can think of it in terms of cars that become more fuel-efficient: instead of saving petrol, people may drive more. In the same way, rather than easing pressure on the planet, innovation in textiles is fuelling more production and harm. What we really need is a rebound effect below one (a “partial rebound”) – or better still, below zero (super conservation).
