The blame for the low level of 'data confidence' in organic cotton numbers lies primarily with just one country: India.
The Organic Cotton Market Report 2022, released earlier this week by Textile Exchange, had shown a 'low' rating for the 'data confidence' in the numbers. Unlike the earlier reports on organic cotton, this year's report came with a big chunk of disclaimers.
The report carried a note in its 'Data confidence' section, never highlighted earlier. The note pointed out a number of facts.
Textile Exchange underlined the fact that this year’s report showed it had a low level of data confidence for India. As the report indicated, this was the reason why the global levels came down proportionately: “We want to highlight this upfront because, with India being the largest producer of organic cotton globally, the estimation that has been made for the country’s 2020–21 organic cotton production has a significant impact on the global total, too.” India, according to this year’s report, produced as much as 38% of the world’s organic cotton.
The reason for this low level of confidence in India’s 2020–21 production data was simple: Textile Exchange was able to obtain data from India’s Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA), but this data combined organic and in-conversion production into a single figure. [In-conversion cotton, which comes from farmers that are in the two-to-three-year process of transitioning their land to organic.]
The report lamented: "As a result, we can’t know with any certainty how much of the production total reported by APEDA is organic and how much is in-conversion. We have applied modelling and assumptions to estimate the breakdown, but this is a very rough estimate."
In the past, Textile Exchange would triangulate APEDA’s figures with data provided by producers and certification bodies to determine the breakdown between organic and in-conversion cotton. However, “we could not obtain sufficient data from these sources to determine the breakdown for 2020–21.” This calls for course correction: “In future years, our methodology will need to evolve to take into consideration the growing challenges faced in data collection–not only in India but in other countries, too.”