Global Confidence in Organic Cotton Dips. Reason: The Great Indian Organic Cotton Scam

The blame for the low level of 'data confidence' in organic cotton numbers lies primarily with one country: India. The problem is that of India, but the entire world has to bear the burden. And, the Organic Cotton Market Report 2022 shows the strain that the world has to endure. A texfash.com analysis.

Long Story, Cut Short
  • Textile Exchange was able to obtain data from India’s Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA), but this data combined organic and in-conversion production into a single figure.
  • Textile Exchange said it has “applied modelling and assumptions to estimate the breakdown, but this is a very rough estimate."
  • Going forward, access to more reliable and timely data will be key to accelerating the adoption of organic cotton and overcoming adversities as they arise.
Based on Textile Exchange's estimated breakdown, in 2020–21, India grew approximately 130,849 tonnes of organic cotton fibre on 230,125 ha of certified organic land. A further 153,004 tonnes of in-conversion fibre was estimated to have been produced on 269,089 ha of land in conversion to organic.
Global Leader Based on Textile Exchange's estimated breakdown, in 2020–21, India grew approximately 130,849 tonnes of organic cotton fibre on 230,125 ha of certified organic land. A further 153,004 tonnes of in-conversion fibre was estimated to have been produced on 269,089 ha of land in conversion to organic. Racool Studio / Freepik

The blame for the low level of 'data confidence' in organic cotton numbers lies primarily with just one country: India.

The Organic Cotton Market Report 2022, released earlier this week by Textile Exchange, had shown a 'low' rating for the 'data confidence' in the numbers. Unlike the earlier reports on organic cotton, this year's report came with a big chunk of disclaimers.

The report carried a note in its 'Data confidence' section, never highlighted earlier. The note pointed out a number of facts.

Textile Exchange underlined the fact that this year’s report showed it had a low level of data confidence for India. As the report indicated, this was the reason why the global levels came down proportionately: “We want to highlight this upfront because, with India being the largest producer of organic cotton globally, the estimation that has been made for the country’s 2020–21 organic cotton production has a significant impact on the global total, too.” India, according to this year’s report, produced as much as 38% of the world’s organic cotton.

The reason for this low level of confidence in India’s 2020–21 production data was simple: Textile Exchange was able to obtain data from India’s Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA), but this data combined organic and in-conversion production into a single figure. [In-conversion cotton, which comes from farmers that are in the two-to-three-year process of transitioning their land to organic.]

The report lamented: "As a result, we can’t know with any certainty how much of the production total reported by APEDA is organic and how much is in-conversion. We have applied modelling and assumptions to estimate the breakdown, but this is a very rough estimate."

In the past, Textile Exchange would triangulate APEDA’s figures with data provided by producers and certification bodies to determine the breakdown between organic and in-conversion cotton. However, “we could not obtain sufficient data from these sources to determine the breakdown for 2020–21.” This calls for course correction: “In future years, our methodology will need to evolve to take into consideration the growing challenges faced in data collection–not only in India but in other countries, too.”

The country is in strategic location for cotton production, accounting for around a quarter of all cotton produced worldwide. India accounted for an estimated 38.2% of global organic cotton production in 2020–21, while 2.1% of the country’s overall cotton production was estimated to be organic.
Small Share The country is in strategic location for cotton production, accounting for around a quarter of all cotton produced worldwide. India accounted for an estimated 38.2% of global organic cotton production in 2020–21, while 2.1% of the country’s overall cotton production was estimated to be organic. Azerbaijan Stockers / Freepik

The lack of credible numbers

Last month, Textile Exchange announced that it would be making a policy change to its Organic Content Standard (OCS). Starting 1 December 2022, OCS would mandatorily require that site inputs from the Global Organic Textile Standard (GOTS) should provide traceability of all transaction certificate data back to the original farm source (e.g. full transaction certificate data including product and input product) and farm input data (e.g. farm capacity).

Though Textile Exchange did not say this in as many words, the main reason for this would have been the scams and scandals that have plagued the organic cotton sector in India.

Also, unlike in the previous years’ reports, the latest Organic Cotton Market Report carries carefully-worded sections on ‘Standards & certification’ and ‘Integrity & traceability’.

But back to India. The feedback that Textile Exchange received from “local stakeholders suggests that around 90% of this growth was in in-conversion cotton production and 10% in organic cotton. This is very different to what we had forecast when preparing last year’s Organic Cotton Market Report and it is why India’s estimated growth in organic cotton production in 2020–21 is 5.3%, not the 48% that we had forecast.” Revising a number from 48 to 5.3 is not something minor—it is as good as turning something upside down.

As the report remarks: “A much higher proportion of the growth reported by APEDA is now thought to be in-conversion cotton. While this indicates that there could be a large rise in organic cotton production from India in the coming years, it may not necessarily be the case as organic cotton is a cash crop and is therefore heavily influenced by market demand and price.”

APEDA shares only total seed cotton production–with no breakdown between organic and in-conversion cotton. The total reported organic and in-conversion seed cotton production doubled since 2019–20, from 335,794 tonnes to 811,008 tonnes. Now, to estimate the breakdown between organic and in-conversion cotton production volumes and land area in India for 2020–21, Textile Exchange had to apply the following assumptions:

  1. The average ginning outturn was 35%.
  2. The average yield average was 538 kg/hectare (based on the three-year average of data provided to us by certification bodies in 2017–18 to 2019–20).
  3. All certified organic cotton land reported in 2019–20 remained active and in-certification in 2020–21.
  4. All Y3 in-conversion land reported in 2019–20 successfully reached certification in 2020–21.
  5. 90% of India’s growth in certified land between 2019–20 and 2020–21 was in-conversion and 10% organic.

All these assumptions were derived based on input from the Organic Cotton Market Report Advisory Panel and past data reported combined with internal observations. In other words, there are far too many assumptions. But, this is the best that Textile Exchange could have done.

Rising Demand
Rising Demand There has been a huge growth in demand for organic cotton from India over the last five years, mainly from the international market but also from some Indian brands. However, this high demand comes with its challenges and there have been instances of fraud discovered. Sze Yin Chan / Unsplash

The inevitable fallout

Scandals and scams have dominated the Indian organic cotton sector over the last few years.

In October 2020, GOTS itself had admitted that it had finally obtained substantial documentary evidence confirming rumours about systematic fraud abusing Indian government certification system of organic cotton production. It found that fake raw cotton transaction certificates (TCs) were being created by fraudsters using APEDA templates with fake QR codes which led to a cloned APEDA website to show that the TCs were apparently authentic.  GOTS admitted knowledge of 20.000 metric tonnes being fake organic cotton.

The immediate fallout was that the United States Department of Agriculture’s National Organic Program (USDA NOP) in January 2021 decided to end the direct accreditation of USDA NOP with APEDA. This meant that all certification bodies now needed to become accredited to NOP directly with the USDA in order to certify crops as USDA NOP in India. And now, Textile Exchange has virtually done the same by seeking original data from GOTS-certified players.

Earlier this year, Control Union—one of the world’s largest certifiers of organic cotton—announced that it would no longer certify cotton in India. The entire certification process apparently was too much of a balancing act, Control Union sources told texfash.com.

The problem is that of India, but the entire world has to bear the burden. And, the Organic Cotton Market Report 2022 shows the strain that the world has to endure.

The report carries a highlighted section on the steps Textile Exchange is taking to improve traceability and prevent fraud, and also makes a ‘Call to Action’: “Data sharing should be a basic requirement. We can’t enforce it, but together we can create demand for key stakeholders to share their data openly, helping us to understand what is happening on the ground.

“Together, we must call on the industry to be more transparent in sharing aggregated data on organic cotton production. This includes government agencies, accreditation bodies, certification bodies, suppliers, voluntary supply chain standards, and umbrella organisations for organic agriculture. Organic cotton producers are another important data source, but compiling data is a burden that shouldn’t have to fall on them.”

It ends on the note: “Going forward, access to more reliable and timely data will be key to accelerating the adoption of organic cotton and overcoming adversities as they arise.”

Or else, it would be the end of the organic cotton sector, as we have known it.

Subir Ghosh

SUBIR GHOSH is a Kolkata-based independent journalist-writer-researcher who writes about environment, corruption, crony capitalism, conflict, wildlife, and cinema. He is the author of two books, and has co-authored two more with others. He writes, edits, reports and designs. He is also a professionally trained and qualified photographer.

 
 
 
  • Dated posted: 7 October 2022
  • Last modified: 7 October 2022