The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has reduced its cotton crop estimate for the 2021–22 season by 8.31 lakh bales to 315.32 lakh bales of 170 kg each (i.e. 335.03 lakh running bales of 160 kg each) from its previous estimate of 323.63 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 343.86 lakh running bales of 160 kg each). The numbers are from the CAI’s May estimate of the cotton crop for the season 2021–22 beginning from 1 October 2021.
Cotton supply: The total cotton supply for the months of October 2021 to May 2022 is now estimated at 367.22 lakh bales of 170 kg each, which consists of the arrivals of 288.38 lakh bales, imports of 7 lakh bales and the opening stock now estimated by the CAI at 71.84 lakh bales of 170 kg each at the beginning of the season.
Cotton consumption: The CAI has estimated cotton consumption for the months of October 2021 to May 2022 at 225 lakh bales while the export shipments up to 31 May 2022 are estimated at 38 lakh bales . Stock at the end of May 2022 is estimated at 104.22 lakh bales including 70 lakh bales with textile mills and the remaining 34.22 lakh bales with the CCI, Maharashtra Federation and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, MCX, etc. including the cotton sold but not delivered).
Supply till end of season: The CAI Crop Committee has estimated the total cotton supply till end of the cotton season 2021–22 i.e. up to 30 September 2022 at 402.16 lakh bales which is less by 11.47 lakh bales compared to 413.63 lakh bales estimated by the CAI previously.
The total cotton supply consists of the opening stock of 71.84 lakh bales at the beginning of the cotton season on 1 October 2021, crop for the season estimated at 315.32 lakh bales as against the previous estimate of 323.63 lakh bales and the imports for the season estimated at 15 lakh bales that is at the same level as estimated previously as against the previous year’s import estimates of 10 lakh bales of 170 kg each.
Consumption estimates: The CAI has reduced its consumption estimate for the current crop year 2021–22 at 315 lakh bales as against its previous consumption estimate of 320 lakh bales . The previous year’s consumption estimate was 338.16 lakh bales. Till 31 May 2022, the consumption hasbeen estimated at 225 lakh bales.
Production estimates: The CAI has also reduced its production estimate for the season 2021–22 to 315.32 lakh bales from its previous estimate of 323.63 lakh balesmade earlier.
Cotton imports: The estimate of cotton imports into India has been maintained at 15 lakh bales. The imports estimated for the 2021–22 crop year are more by 5.00 lakh bales compared to the imports estimate of 10 lakh bales for the previous crop year 2020–21. Up to 31 May 2022, about 7 lakh bales were estimated to have arrived at Indian ports.
