Frayed Futures: India’s Cotton Crop Unspooling Fast

Protecting this crop is not just a need—it's a responsibility, exhorts Arvind Bhai, who also serves as president of the Saurashtra Ginners Association. He brandishes stats as a warning: “Unless the government and industry urgently improve seed technology, raise yields, and support farmers directly, cotton in India may decline to unsustainable levels. Between 2002 and 2015, there was tremendous growth. India’s production rose from about 20–50 lakh bales to 400 lakh bales. Gujarat alone contributed around 140 lakh bales and became the top producer. Those years were excellent for the industry.

“After 2015, production began to decline due to a combination of factors: poor-quality seeds, climate change, and pest attacks. Yields are very low in India—about 550 kg per hectare—compared to 2000–2500 kg per hectare in the US or China. The difference is because they have original, high-quality seeds, good sowing practices, and timely rainfall.”

Ripple, whose Fiotex is a Jamnagar-based spinning mill with 51,072 spindles, engaged in ring spinning, manufacturing 100% cotton yarn from range 16s to 40s and exports to almost 22 different countries, echoes: “Cotton is a cash crop and has always given better profitability compared to others like peanuts. Before 2002, we had local varieties like Shankar-6. Yields were low, but returns were higher than other crops. In 2002–03, when BT cotton was introduced, it doubled yields from 250–300 kg per hectare to about 500 kg. Costs rose only 20–30%. Farmers prospered in those years. But now yields are stuck at 450–460 kg per hectare while the world average is 2,000–2,500 kg! Brazil, Australia, China—everyone is higher. Even Pakistan, in spite of fewer resources, achieves 600–650 kg. Farmers are turning to groundnut and other crops because labour costs are rising and yield is not increasing.”

India is thus at a disadvantage because, “our cotton is 10% costlier than world cotton, with lower quality and higher contamination. Our yarn is more expensive. When Pakistan, China or Brazil can sell yarn cheaper, we lose competitiveness. Unless yield rises, we cannot match their prices.”

Today Saurashtra alone has 350 ginning factories, and across Gujarat 610–620, covering north, south and Kutch. In India as a whole, there must be around 3,500–4,000 ginning factories. India’s cotton crop is around 3.25–3.5 crore bales annually, but ginning capacity is 8–10 crore bales. “Gujarat produces about 80 lakh bales but has capacity for more than 2.5 crore, three times the actual production! This imbalance exists across the country: capacity is far greater than production. So, buyers are many, goods less; competition is fierce, and profitability tough,” says the trader.

The earliest archaeological cotton finds from the Indus Valley / Mehrgarh and sites in Peru indicate that it was in use 5,000–6,000 years ago. From the cotton seed to gin to global textile supply chains, from the fields of Africa and South Asia to the mills and fashion houses of Europe and the Americas, cotton has shaped cultures, economies and millions of livelihoods. Almost half of all global textiles are made from cotton, making it the fabric of both tradition and innovation.

It starts with the farmer in the field onto industries that transform the fibre into fabric, engaging more than 250 million people worldwide, supporting nearly 7% of labour in developing countries. Today, the world produces roughly ~119 million bales (~25 million tonnes) of cotton each year—with India, China, Brazil, the US Australia and Pakistan among the top producers.

Intertwined with human existence, a saga of back-breaking work, creativity, and connection, strengthening rural communities, empowering smallholders, and inspiring industries to pursue sustainability, each bale recounts a story of farmers, especially women, who drive resilience and change in their communities. It is one of those key reminders that display the delicate balance between nature and people.

In Gujarat, it is the Patel community which is predominantly into cotton farming. “About 50–60% of farmers are Patel farmers. The rest are from communities like Vishwakarma and others. In Saurashtra region, the main crops are peanuts and cotton, followed by some seeds and castor. Cotton farming has been a generational occupation in many families,” informs Ripple.

Gujarat produces about 9 million bales today, down from 10 million earlier. That is around 30% of India’s cotton and about 8% of the world’s cotton. Within Gujarat, 70–80% comes from Saurashtra. Location is a natural advantage—it has ports within 100–150 km for exports, and cotton within 50–100 km for procurement.

The ginning factories are spread across the cotton-growing belt. In Saurashtra, it is a huge area—within a 200 km radius of Rajkot, stretching to Porbandar, Una, Diu, Bhavnagar, Surendranagar, Kutch-Bhuj, and Dwarka. Factories are distributed across villages in this entire belt.

There was a time when cotton from Saurashtra was known to be the best in quality. “Maharashtra’s quality has improved now, but Saurashtra cotton had a special feature: natural wax. When kept in sunlight, it showed seven colours. This wax content was higher here because of the region’s black soil, cold winter winds (shialu pavan), and proximity to the sea on three sides. These natural conditions gave cotton better lustre, making it excellent for hosiery,” another cotton broker informs.

Why is India stuck at 450–650 kg or thereabouts? Because, answers Ripple, “we are still at BT-1 and BT-2 seeds. The world has moved to BT-3, BT-4, hybrid high-density varieties, supported by mechanised farming. They are pest-resistant, high-yielding, and suited for mechanised farming. India hasn’t moved beyond BT-2 due to regulations. Seeds are government controlled, and Monsanto was the only supplier. The government wanted prices lowered, companies didn’t agree, and farmers got stuck. Unless new seeds are introduced, yields won’t improve.”

Fragmented landholdings and regulations also has India trailing. Unless seed technology changes, yields will remain stagnant.

The reason why the government resisted new seed varieties is mainly “because of farmer suicides linked to spurious or overpriced seeds.” The Supreme Court too intervened to ensure farmers are not cheated. Monsanto was the only player and wanted higher prices, government wanted cheaper seeds. The deadlock froze seed development. Cotton is not a food crop; so, it is lower on the government’s priority compared to wheat, rice, maize, or sugarcane. For farmers, there are alternatives. For textiles, cotton is essential, but the government has to balance food security first.

“For years cotton was not a priority—it ranked 11th or 12th compared to food crops like wheat, rice and sugarcane. But recently, through the Textile Advisory Group, issues are being recognised. Still, cotton is not food; so, food security dominates policy. Farmers can switch crops; textile mills cannot. For us, cotton is critical raw material. For government, it is not survival. That difference explains the slow action,” Ripple explains. “Again, for farmers, cotton is optional. For textiles, it is essential. That mismatch is the heart of the problem.”

Arvind Bhai adds: “Duplicate seeds are sold widely without restriction. Farmers buy them because they are cheaper, but yields suffer. Globally, seed technology has advanced to BT-7, while India is stuck at BT-2. Unless better seeds are brought here—through government permission, collaboration, or import—yields will not improve. Only yield improvement can save the industry.

Talking about how work at his factory has changed over the last decade or more, Arvind Bhai reveals a grim story: “In 1997, our production capacity was 15,000 bales annually. At peak, we produced 200,000 bales. Today, it is down to 50,000–60,000 bales. Running at full capacity means losses, so we operate at lower utilisation—just enough to provide work for labourers.”

The industry is struggling, he sounds the alarm on the looming crises and doles out figures yet again: “At peak, our turnover (at Jaydeep Cotton Fibres Pvt Ltd) was ₹600–700 crore. Now it is down to about ₹200 crore. Profit margins are negligible—about 0.035%!”

Another issue that plagues the cotton industry is MSP or the minimum support price determined by the Cotton Corporation of India that works to “undertake price support operations, whenever the market prices of cotton or kapas fall below the MSP announced by the Central government, without any quantitative limit. Besides MSP operations, to fulfil the raw material requirement of the domestic textile industry particularly for lean season, CCI also undertakes commercial purchase operations.”

For the 2025–26 cotton season, the MSP for medium staple cotton is set at ₹7,710 per quintal and for long staple cotton at ₹8,110 per quintal.

Says Ripple: “The MSP protects farmers but makes spinners uncompetitive. If the MSP is raised, all cotton is procured at a higher price, and spinners have no cheaper alternative. The government did waive the 10% import duty for three months to ease the pressure. But unless yields increase, these temporary measures cannot solve the problem.”

Adds Arvind Bhai: Every year, the MSP is raised by about ₹400–500 per quintal. This benefits farmers. “But I believe a better solution is the Bhavantar system: direct transfers to farmers’ bank accounts based on sowing area, which can be verified by satellite. That way, farmers get assured income without intermediaries. It reduces corruption in CCI procurement and ensures farmers are directly supported.”

Another trader agrees to disagree on the Bhavantar system. (All the traders / brokers spoke on conditions of anonymity).

Currently, India is importing about 50 lakh bales, while exports have collapsed from 100 lakh bales five years ago to just 20 lakh bales today. India, once an exporter, is now an importer. Removal of import duty reduced prices by ₹2,000 per candy, making imported cotton cheaper for spinners but hurting farmers and ginners.”

Says a trader: “Since last year the government has been raising the MSP every season. Last year, the MSP was ₹1,500 per 20 kg kapas, which made the cost high compared to international prices. Private buyers cannot compete at that level; So, only the government procures. For the last season, the MSP was raised further by ₹1,600. This is good for farmers, but it means that of the 3.25 crore bales, whatever government buys is at a high cost. The rest, private players will only buy at lower, internationally aligned rates. Imports are not necessary.

“Farmers whose cotton the government does not buy at ₹1,600 must sell in private markets, where the prices are lower. Buying at MSP raises costs to ₹60,000–65,000 per candy, but the current market price is ₹54,000–55,000. That gap makes it unviable. If you look at international prices at present, cotton from Tanzania, Brazil, Australia, the US and Africa is landing at Indian ports at ₹51,000–55,000 per candy, depending on quality. Many mills are doing deals for imported cotton.”

When it comes to exports, the cotton season sees India export around 16–17 lakh bales. Most goes to Bangladesh, and most of that is certified cotton—organic, BCI, REEL, Rain Agri, Fairtrade, etc. Bangladesh’s garment industry demands certified cotton, and India supplies it cheaper than competitors. Probably more than 50%, maybe up to 75%, of India’s exported cotton is certified. Apart from Bangladesh, small quantities go to Greece, Egypt, Thailand, Tunisia, Japan and some European countries. The US exports almost all its production—90–95%—as it has very little domestic demand.

India removed import duties on cotton till 31 December this year as mills were unable to buy at CCI’s high prices and were going into losses. Also, exports were suffering because Indian cotton was costlier than global prices. Yarn exports dropped, which affected garments too. India produces about 3.25–3.5 crore bales, of which about 65% is consumed domestically. Around 35% of yarn must be exported to avoid market pressure and falling prices.

Last season export was around 18 lakh bales, and the current season may go down to below 15 lakh bales. In fact, says the trader, India may have to import 50 lakh bales for the first time ever, depending on prices and CCI policy.

“If exports don’t happen, the spinning industry suffers. That’s why import duty was removed—to ease mills’ costs. Exports are essential for balance, but with higher MSP, it is only farmers who benefit. MSP is very good for farmers because they get assured prices. But for ginners, spinners, weavers, and the rest of the textile industry, it is not good. MSP today is at least 20% higher than international rates. If raw cotton is costlier by that much, the industry cannot compete in export markets,” says a trader.

The solution to ease this issue, suggests he, is that CCI should not hold on to stock. Last year also, the CCI sold at a loss. This year too, whatever they have procured, they should start selling within 15 days or a month, at international price levels. If they keep releasing cotton steadily, mills will get supplies, and confidence will return. If the CCI sets a clear policy—buy in October, sell in November; buy in November, sell in December—then spinners and weavers will not need to look abroad.”

This year CCI has promulgated some new rules which may benefit farmers but could cause problems for traders. “First, farmers must pre-register, a farmer from one taluka* can sell only in the same taluka, and per hectare only 14 quintal of kapas can be sold.”

The new rules, chips in Ripple, “is to stop the mal practices in this business.”

Elaborating on the role of the ginning players here the trader continues: “Ginners do job work for the CCI and earn processing fees if their factories are used. Out of 3,500–4,000 factories, perhaps 500–1000 are engaged by the CCI. Those get some work and avoid losses. But most others remain idle, which is a big problem. Last year, the CCI purchased around 33%. The rest went to private markets, but farmers sold near MSP, not much lower. That left little margin for ginners and mills.”

When prices are high, it is a problem for mills. But when prices are low, garment makers can benefit if CCI releases stock promptly at international levels. Then spinners also do not face problems. But if it holds stock, then the whole chain suffers.

In countries like China, Brazil or the US, farms are huge and mechanised. India lags far behind because farms are small and fragmented. But, some pilot projects are happening. For instance, a company in Rajkot is developing high-density plantation and mechanised picking models. In Maharashtra it is being experimented with more success.

According to Ripple, cotton is still picked manually in 2–3 rounds, which reduces quality. First picking fibre is best, second is poorer, third the worst. Other countries harvest in one mechanised picking; so, their fibre is more uniform.

Ask why farmers still follow multiple pickings and Ripple explains: “It is an ancient practice. My grandfather did it, my father did it, and farmers still do it. Because mechanisation hasn’t taken root here, cotton is picked in two or three rounds.”

Compounding all of this is the issue of labour. Cotton cultivation requires labour-intensive picking—two or three times in a season. Each picking takes 3–5 days, sometimes 7–10 if the farm is large. At that moment, all labour is needed, but there is scarcity. Planting and routine cultivation are mechanised, so less labour is required then. But during picking, the shortage is severe. That is why mechanisation is the way forward.

Contamination is another serious issue. Cotton here often contains soil, trash, even traces of polypropylene (PP) from fertiliser bags in which farmers bring the cotton. White PP bags are the worst, because contamination is difficult to remove and shows up as dye spots in fabric. Even with contamination sorters, some particles always escape detection and damage the yarn or fabric. Green or yellow PP is better, as it is more visible and easier to remove.

Cotton as a crop needs irrigated water. Earlier, rains used to fall within a short period, and now it extends till Diwali. This prolonged rainfall damages crops. Over the last five years, this has become more frequent. However, says Ripple, for them it has been a boon. “Twenty years ago, droughts came every alternate year. But in the last 15–20 years, we have not seen such droughts. Irrigation facilities are improving with the Narmada dams. Groundwater tables are rising. Monsoons have been good and consistent. Only unseasonal rains in October damage cotton, but otherwise, climate change has improved the situation”.

Rainfall apart, there are also pest issues. When BT cotton was first introduced, there were no pest issues. But over time, pests like pink bollworm have returned. They damage the cotton bolls, lower grades, and reduce yields. Farmers now use very strong pesticides, which harm the soil. Costs have also increased sharply—one 200–500 gm bottle of pesticide that cost ₹5,000 is now ₹10,000. If these are not applied continuously, the crop cannot be saved. Overuse is damaging the soil, further lowering yields.

Ripple sheds light on the matter: “If fertilisers are like food, then saying you will survive only on herbs or fruits is unrealistic. The real solution is sustainable farming. Balanced use of fertilisers, efficient use of water, high-yield seeds, micronutrients, and modern technology like AI for early detection of deficiencies or pest risks. Sustainability works, organic does not.

“There is a lot of talk about organic, but honestly it is not practical. Organic cotton gives much lower yields—250–300 kg per hectare. Unless the market pays 7–8 times more, farmers cannot sustain themselves. In India, there are no clear standards for organic. Every certifier defines it differently. Even globally, definitions vary country to country. It is more of a marketing buzz.”

Arvind Bhai contends that the demand is there, but in reality only “2% of so-called ‘organic cotton’ is genuine. The rest is fraudulent—based only on certificates. Unless the government directly monitors farms, tests soil, and verifies sowing, the fraud will continue. As it stands, organic cotton is largely a certification scam.”

If this is how the cotton sector continues to perform, the cotton and ginning industry will collapse, cautions Arvind Bhai. Sowing is steadily reducing. Farmers are switching over to other viable crops across the landscape. Unless the government and industry urgently improve seed technology, raise yields, and support farmers directly, cotton in India may drop to unsustainable levels.

Ripple says the same. “Without upgrading seed technology, nothing will improve. After that, high-density mechanised farming, alongside balanced fertiliser use and micronutrients. It’s a package solution, not one single thing. If seeds are upgraded and yields double, cotton will remain the backbone of Indian textiles. If not, farmers will keep moving to groundnut or pulses, and spinners will suffer. Remember, 70–75% of Indian textiles are cotton-based. If cotton fails, the entire value chain collapses.”

And, if nothing changes India will keep losing ground. “Already, Brazil has doubled production in five years while we have fallen. China and Bangladesh are far ahead in garments. Even Pakistan, with fewer resources, has higher yields. We are the largest in area under cotton, but lowest in yield. That is unsustainable. Yield is the solution. If yields rise, farmers, spinners and the nation all win. Without it, everyone loses.”

A trader sums up: “First, improve seeds. Second, if the MSP is high, then export incentives must also be higher. Cotton’s share in garment cost is small—150–200 grams in a shirt—so high MSP does not matter in domestic garment price. But it makes exports uncompetitive. Export benefits are 4–5% now; they should be increased to 10% so that exporters can compete

In the cotton industry for the last three decades, he threshes it out bare: “There are four sectors—farmers, ginners, spinners, and garments. Farmers are protected by MSP, but seeds are not improving. Ginners depend on processing jobs. Spinners and garment makers struggle with high raw material costs. Each sector sees its own benefit differently. If a policy benefits one, another suffers. That is why a balanced policy is needed. Unless government makes policies that consider all four sectors together, solutions will not last.”