It ain't fashion, if it ain't sustainable

Cotton in El Niño’s Path

US forecasters put the chance of a historic El Niño between October and December at 75%, and countries growing around half the world’s cotton are expected to face extreme weather. This three-part series traces the risk through the supply chain: the price swings that have already run through the market, the pull towards virgin polyester, and the importers most dependent on Brazilian cotton.

Climate Crisis / El Niño Effect / I

13 October 2026

5 minutes

A projected gap between world cotton output and mill use left little capacity to absorb further losses, whatever the Pacific brings in the final quarter of the year.

Early Warnings Do Little to Protect the Mills That Hold Physical Cotton

Global cotton supply is projected to fall short of demand independently of El Niño. The USDA's August figures put the gap at about 5.3 million bales, and prices rallied on supply concerns before falling back by about a tenth. For spinners that contracted near the peak, a weather shock later this year would compound an existing loss.

Subir Ghosh

Analysis

Wireframe: Cotton in El Niño’s Path