China’s textile and apparel sector emissions were shaped predominantly by demand-side forces rather than factory energy use between 2000 and 2018. A new analysis has linked carbon growth to household consumption patterns and export-oriented production, and identified fragmented, upstream-intensive supply chains as significant contributors to embedded emissions across the sector’s wider value chain.
- Household consumption and exports together contributed roughly 85% of total emissions growth, far exceeding the impact of direct energy use in textile factories.
- Urban households produced more than four times the carbon emissions of rural households, reflecting higher clothing purchases and changing consumption habits.
- Carbon flow mapping identified wet processing, electricity use and long, fragmented supply chains as major emission hotspots, including in upstream chemicals, transport and logistics.
- Published recently in Engineering Environment, ‘Greening and recycling clothes: pathways to flatten the carbon emission in China’s textile industry by 2035’ by Nanjing University researchers examined historical emission trends and modelled future mitigation scenarios.
THE RESEARCH FRAMEWORK: Researchers from Nanjing University undertook a system-wide assessment of carbon emissions in China’s textile and apparel industry, combining production- and consumption-based perspectives. Using national household consumption datasets alongside supply-chain input–output modelling, the team quantified emissions from 2000 to 2018, mapped carbon flows across the supply chain, and constructed mitigation scenarios extending to 2035.
- The modelling framework integrated household demand data with interlinked industrial supply-chain flows to capture emissions embedded beyond factory energy use.
- Authors include Li Sun, Jiacong Cai, Linze Hou, Encheng Zhang, Jingqi Li, Jianxun Yang, Wen Fang, Zongwei Ma and Miaomiao Liu, all affiliated with Nanjing University. Jianxun Yang was the corresponding author, and the research team was affiliated with Nanjing University across the study’s modelling and scenario work.
- Decomposition analysis was applied to isolate the relative contributions of production structures, exports and household consumption to overall emission growth.
- The study received financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China.
WHERE THE CARBON COMES FROM: The analysis attributed the bulk of emission growth in China’s textile sector to demand-side expansion rather than direct factory combustion. By integrating consumption-based accounting with production data, the researchers quantified how rapid urbanisation, income growth, shifting consumption patterns and export demand reshaped the industry’s carbon profile between 2000 and 2018.
- Decomposition analysis attributed the majority of total carbon emissions to demand-side factors, with estimates ranging between 79.5% and 92.7%.
- Household consumption and exports together drove an increase of 349.6 Mt CO2 in sectoral emissions during the 2000–2018 period.
- Urban households generated substantially higher carbon emissions than rural households due to significantly higher clothing consumption levels.
- Carbon flow mapping identified wet processing, electricity consumption and fragmented supply chains as principal emission hotspots within the industry’s production and supply network.
- Emissions embodied in upstream sectors, including chemicals, transportation and logistics, continued rising even as electrification reduced some fossil fuel use.
MODELLING THE TRANSITION: To test how the sector’s emissions might evolve, the researchers modelled five mitigation scenarios through 2035, comparing technology efficiency measures with wider system shifts. They found energy-saving technologies alone delivered limited reductions, but supply-chain decarbonisation via renewable electricity cut emissions more broadly. Clothing recycling was identified as a second major lever, particularly in the context of fast fashion and short garment lifespans that intensify resource use and waste.
- The scenario set compared energy-saving upgrades, renewable energy adoption and enhanced clothing recycling, rather than treating decarbonisation as a single factory-level intervention.
- Renewable electricity reduced carbon intensity across interconnected upstream activities, extending mitigation beyond textile mills into the wider supply chain.
- Recycling worked as a demand-side measure by extending garment lifespans and lowering the need for new fibre, fabric and wet-processing throughput.
- The combined pathway paired clean power with circularity measures, aiming to curb long-term emissions growth while maintaining industrial development objectives.
- The study framed the challenge as both technological and consumption-driven, suggesting textiles could shift from a climate liability to a contributor to a low-carbon future through aligned measures.
WHAT THEY SAID
This study shows that decarbonizing the textile industry is not just a technological challenge, but also a consumption challenge. Focusing only on factories misses the bigger picture. Our results demonstrate that household demand, urban lifestyles, and export-oriented production play decisive roles in driving emissions. By aligning clean energy transitions with circular economy strategies—especially clothing recycling—we can achieve meaningful emission reductions without sacrificing economic vitality. These insights provide a scientific foundation for designing more effective and balanced climate policies.
— Jianxun Yang (Corresponding Author)
Institute for the Environment and Health
Nanjing University
